Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 10 2023 16:40:07 ACUS01 KWNS 101640 SWODY1 SPC AC 101638 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening across eastern Colorado and western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main threats. ....Central High Plains southward to west Texas... A nearly zonal belt of moderately strong westerlies will exist from the central Rockies into the south-central Plains. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur across southeast Colorado/far southwest Kansas as a cold front shifts southward across the south-central High Plains. A confined plume of modified Gulf air will be maintained across a portion of west Texas into southwest Kansas near and ahead of the front. Robust boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west/southwest of convection that persists across the region into midday, netting a corridor of moderate buoyancy mainly from northwest Texas into southwest Kansas later today. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be focused within three regimes. One being high-based storms emanating off the southern Rockies, two being along the front and buoyancy plume intersection in west Kansas, and three near the dryline/remnant outflow intersection in the Texas Panhandle. For the latter two, low-level veering of the wind profile with height beneath mid to upper level speed shear should favor at least a few discrete supercells with a primary threat of large hail. Upstream high-based activity should overtake slower-moving supercells and Kansas supercells will also be undercut from north to south by the accelerating cold front. This should yield broader cluster development towards early evening with some uptick in severe wind potential anticipated. ....Southern New England... A weak mid-level disturbance and warm/moist conveyor appears to be influencing a corridor of recently increased thunderstorms at late morning. A moist air mass and cloud breaks/additional heating will lead to modest destabilization, although updraft accelerations will be somewhat tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. A few microbursts could occur, but overall severe potential should be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic environment and effective shear of 20-25 kt or less. ...Guyer/Thornton.. 09/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .