Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 10 2023 05:52:02

ACUS02 KWNS 100551
SWODY2
SPC AC 100550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of southwest
Texas on Monday afternoon and early evening.

....Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will slowly move southeastward
across the Upper Midwest.  A cold front will extend from the Great
Lakes into the lower MO Valley/southern Great Plains and the
southern portion of the front will continue to push southward into
southwest TX.  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from
the Great Lakes southwest into the southern Great Plains.

....Southwest TX...
A mid-level disturbance located to the west of the Pacific coast of
southern CA, will move east across much of the Desert Southwest
prior to Monday morning.  This feature is forecast to move
east-southeast across west TX and into central TX during the
daylight hours Monday.  The aforementioned cold front aligned in a
general west-east orientation will push into the Permian Basin and
Big Country by mid afternoon.  Model guidance indicates near 60 deg
F dewpoints in the Concho Valley.  Diurnal heating will likely
result in moderate destabilization by mid afternoon ahead of the
front.  Model guidance exhibits variability in spatial placement of
a cluster of potential thunderstorm activity, but it seems at least
isolated thunderstorms will develop from the Permian Basin into
west-central TX during the afternoon.  Lapse rates and appreciably
strong deep-layer shear may support a few intermittently organized
storms capable of large hail and localized severe gusts.

...Smith.. 09/10/2023

$$

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