Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 10 2023 03:50:58

AWUS01 KWNH 100350
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-100600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1150 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2023

Areas affected...southeastern New York State, western
Massachusetts, western Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100349Z - 100600Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will exist for a few
hours across the discussion area tonight.

Discussion...Areas of deep, moist convection was focused along a
weak surface boundary generally extending from near POU to near
EEN.  South of this boundary, 70s F dewpoints was helping to
sustain weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy (generally in the
500-2000 J/kg range).  Storms were being sustained by this airmass
and convergence along the aforementioned boundary, with some
evidence of ascent aloft from one or two mid-level waves migrating
northeastward across New York state.  Additionally, the nature of
the stationary boundary (parallel to steering flow aloft) was
allowing for occasional backbuilding and training of storms,
prompting areas of 2+ inch/hr rain rates especially near POU.

Ongoing convective trends (with additional convection forming
upstream over far southern/southeastern New York) suggests that
the ongoing scenario for heavy rainfall could continue for at
least another 2-3 hours or so.  Spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates
could challenge local FFG thresholds across the region (generally
in that 1.5-2.5 inch/hr range - locally lower).  Areas with
sensitive ground conditions could experience excessive runoff
where heavier rainfall materializes.  Most models/CAMs do not
offer much support for this heavy rain scenario to persist much
beyond 05Z or so, although the presence of weak inhibition, local
convective forcing, and upstream buoyancy suggests that at least
isolated convective/flash flood potential should existing beyond
that time (05Z).

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-t4YKBzXhMd4xVx72AHK9KpVSu51dyvrmqFUWWu6PwnjKX7MaIe2pF_YLeWsn7D82V86=
cWcFzdXTLw95-WkxvLeL5ck$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42807302 42787227 42397200 41887239 41277350=20
            41557407 42517369=20

=3D =3D =3D
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