Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2124
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 09 2023 21:59:58

ACUS11 KWNS 092159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092159=20
TXZ000-092330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092159Z - 092330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail may accompany the
stronger storms. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular and multicellular storms have been
increasing in intensity and coverage across central TX toward the
middle TX coast over the past couple of hours. Despite weak vertical
shear, these storms continue to intensify atop a hot, well-mixed
boundary layer, with surface temperatures well exceeding 100 F,
boosting MLCAPE to 1500+ J/kg. Water-loaded downdrafts within the
stronger storm cores may support a couple of severe gusts along with
an instance or two of hail. Nonetheless, the lack of more
appreciable vertical shear should render the severe threat brief and
isolated, precluding a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-ZaPyGMhPrpqZkJISyhx8dFieRa5AhIU5RNBW1gkBSvEhi5Jm4NSadyDStjHD3-ZnHCXI2o5a=
Gb-skSuK6HASb3oAaU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   27729703 29299830 29359841 30339919 30920011 31260040
            32119983 32259910 32229840 31579733 30549650 29639598
            29129570 28709562 27729703=20


=3D =3D =3D
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