Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2122
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 09 2023 21:26:28

ACUS11 KWNS 092126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092125=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into far western
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092125Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe gust or instance of hail may accompany
the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular and pulse-cellular storms have been
gradually intensifying over the higher terrain in central NM, where
strong surface heating and boundary-layer mixing has boosted MLCAPE
over 1000 J/kg. Given scant low-level moisture, these storms are
high-based and are expected to remain so through the rest of the
afternoon. 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis)
should support the potential for a severe gust or two. Given steep
lapse rates also present in the 700-500 mb layer, some hail may also
accompany the most potent storm cores. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should remain isolated overall and a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9C_W6WoQ2N56bScr55jbAZjHyJbpP9HbiKZ9DLMAvgJfBx7p-R3aduRac6CQ-ReiwLJVypryh=
2WIFm3-OUIyec1tdtU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34050554 35040511 35450475 35680408 35590333 35320302
            34640293 33990305 33540329 33370355 33310440 33250488
            34050554=20


=3D =3D =3D
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