Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2119
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 09 2023 07:47:21

ACUS11 KWNS 090747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090746=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-090945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023

Areas affected...South-Central SD...North-Central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 090746Z - 090945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts are possible across south-central SD
and north-central ND for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a trend toward more
forward propagation with the cluster of warm-air advection
thunderstorms moving along the central SD/NE border vicinity.
Overall buoyancy is modest, but the low-level jet will persist for
at least the next few hours, with related warm-air advection support
storm persistence as well.=20

Based on forecast soundings, these storms are likely based above 700
mb (10 kft), atop a notably warm and dry sub-cloud layer. These
environmental conditions could support the production of robust,
negatively buoyant outflow, which could produce strong gusts at the
surface, despite relatively cool surface temperatures. Even so,
isolated nature of this wind threat should preclude the need for a
watch.

...Mosier/Grams.. 09/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_xrFOna4gILsrJi9SXsTu9sOLUmJ-iifZFr6vJ2vN36lRAUDEw1YK81fDu4miRwEwLWDzYCtD=
71FvoeKI_lZLVDnG5w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43330181 43500103 42739852 41529876 41750092 42500176
            43330181=20


=3D =3D =3D
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