Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2116
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 08 2023 23:36:21

ACUS11 KWNS 082336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082335=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Areas affected...Red River Region (OK/TX)

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 082335Z - 090130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening.
Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted if convection continues
to increase.

DISCUSSION...Upper anticyclone is slowly retrograding across the
southern Rockies this evening. This is resulting in a gradual
increase in northwesterly flow across the southern Plains with 500mb
flow now on the order of 25-30kt along the Red River. Weak surface
low is sagging south and a notable wind shift is now arcing from
southwest OK-GYI-northeast of Dallas. Very hot surface temperatures
are noted south of the boundary with surface readings still in
excess of 105F. As a result, the boundary layer is very deep across
this region, and PW values are seasonally high with values
approaching 1.5 inches. 50+ temp/dew point spreads and high cloud
bases appear favorable for gusty winds with convection that is
gradually maturing along the front near the Red River. If this
activity continues to organize there is some concern for a more
organized wind threat, especially if convection propagates southeast
along the frontal zone.

...Darrow/Thompson.. 09/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8XC05_tMCoJK2GAPTMakfx26Y0gr15rXZqqvTOz64z1tnio_LPSDF90PbEkHVAi3L1fA0aNt8=
GfkK7ooa_FzQ4eftvE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34409726 33879621 33109626 32919708 33559794 34119875
            34509848 34409726=20


=3D =3D =3D
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