Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2109
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 08 2023 17:58:46

ACUS11 KWNS 081758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081758=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-081930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic into southern
New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081758Z - 081930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds should
exist with thunderstorms that have developed. The need for a watch
in the short term remains unclear, but trends will be closely
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar imagery show widely
spaced convection has developed from parts of southern DE into NJ,
and across southern New England. This activity is being aided by
modest ascent/convergence along the Atlantic sea breeze, and the
eastern periphery of weak upper troughing over the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. A favorable thermodynamic environment exists from the
Delmarva to southern New England, where 2000-2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE is
present. But, stronger mid-level flow appears to be slightly
displaced to the west of the greatest instability, with recent VWPs
across this area suggesting 0-6 km shear remains 20-25 kt or less.
While some modest convective organization may occur given this weak
shear, the widely spaced nature of the ongoing thunderstorms given
weak large-scale ascent limits confidence in a greater concentration
of severe risk developing for the next couple of hours. Still, an
isolated hail/gusty wind threat should continue with this convection
with the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. While
watch issuance does not seem immediately likely, trends will be
closely monitored.

...Gleason/Guyer.. 09/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9yHeN77sp_IEe1Yqpfz55DHiDrnDyaEnCJ367FjuT70nV_SUa8glNaAjoJpDVLKzN2QwgylQY=
KFlGRUKFuOYfgre-AM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON   38747565 40117464 41627295 42577203 42927125 42697094
            41657193 39857404 38607528 38467560 38747565=20


=3D =3D =3D
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