Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2108
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 08 2023 17:53:18

ACUS11 KWNS 081753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081752=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-081945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Areas affected...southern Louisiana and adjacent upper Texas coastal
areas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081752Z - 081945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts may increase with
intensifying thunderstorm activity, mainly near Louisiana and
adjacent upper Texas coastal areas during the 2-4 PM CDT time frame.
 Due to the limited nature of the risk in area and time, it is not
clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are still
being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convective outflow, and preceding gravity waves,
continue to advance south-southwestward across central into southern
Louisiana at around 30 kt.   While relatively warm air in the
850-700 mb layer continues to provide inhibition for the seasonably
moist boundary layer preceding the outflow, low-level lift has
supported renewed vigorous thunderstorm development.  Based on
forecast and observed morning forecast soundings, it is not clear
that CAPE differs appreciably for boundary-layer parcels versus
elevated moist parcels, and it appears on the order of 2000 J/kg,
but may approach 3000 J/kg near immediate coastal areas.

Given the current motion of the convective outflow and further
reduction in inhibition with additional boundary layer warming,=20
more substantive convective intensification and upscale growth
appears possible near immediate coastal areas by the 19-20Z.  Before
activity advances offshore, there may be a window of opportunity for
a few localized downbursts, and cold pool strengthening, capable of
supporting potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 09/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6e20vPgZI7JxnrX6epRDqnN2o0EmRPGLJUgHOy0cW4sFtgu1WeRYX1l0os4situJej6yJIAjg=
10NHj9LrWzUf9kvyQ8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30419274 30269171 29839033 28769004 28859213 29619395
            30399348 30419274=20


=3D =3D =3D
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