Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2107
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 08 2023 17:19:17

ACUS11 KWNS 081719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081718=20
FLZ000-081945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081718Z - 081945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong/gusty winds and marginally
severe hail should persist this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon
across much of the central FL Peninsula on the southern periphery of
a weak upper low centered over south GA/north FL. Cool mid-level
temperatures noted on the 12Z TBW/JAX observed soundings, along with
daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, have aided the
development of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Marginally severe hail has
been observed with one of the stronger cores that developed, and an
isolated hail threat should continue given modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates. Some threat for occasional strong to damaging
winds may also exist with loosely organized clusters spreading
slowly southward/eastward. Still, deep-layer shear is expected to
remain weak across the FL Peninsula through the day given modest
low/mid-level flow. This should generally limit better thunderstorm
organization, with only isolated strong to severe convection
anticipated through the rest of the afternoon. Accordingly, watch
issuance is not expected.

...Gleason/Guyer.. 09/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8b0fjVg6wLf7slR1cdO2vr_diT1hNBY0q7XiMm5skXqadDkrFvBLDGQJht2VKecWAT-cGRq2n=
YCRoazzdQRDlXXZ4RY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28438255 28638182 28828160 29708148 29618099 28448051
            26868008 26948122 27728235 28438255=20


=3D =3D =3D
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