Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 08 2023 07:27:45 ACUS03 KWNS 080727 SWODY3 SPC AC 080726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains on Sunday. ....Synopsis... Model guidance on Sunday depicts a weak mid-level trough over the Appalachians and another weak trough over western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A mid-level anticyclone will reside over northwestern Mexico and a mid-level ridge over the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow is forecast over the central Rockies eastward into KS. In the low levels, a surface front will extend from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. ....Central High Plains vicinity... Showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning near and north of the surface boundary owing in part to a modest southerly LLJ. Models seem to show a weak mid-level disturbance moving east from the central Rockies into the High Plains during the day. Additional storms are forecast to develop during the day with considerable uncertainty both in the evolution and eastern extent of stronger storm activity. However, heating amidst cloud breaks within a moist plume extending from the TX Panhandle into the central High Plains, may result in moderate destabilization. Forecast soundings show some modest strengthening of westerly flow in the mid to upper levels which would support storm organization. Some of the stronger storms may result in an isolated large hail/severe gust threat mainly during the afternoon into the early evening. ....Mid-Atlantic states... Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Sunday to the east of the high terrain. Model guidance indicates around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop in the area centered on Chesapeake Bay. Only modest low to mid-level flow will likely limit storm organization potential. Although a few locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, low confidence and the spatial uncertainty/magnitude of the threat preclude low-severe probabilities. ...Smith.. 09/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .