Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 08 2023 01:01:43

ACUS01 KWNS 080101
SWODY1
SPC AC 080100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE EAST...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may persist this evening over parts of
the the Northeast, Nebraska, and from the western Carolinas into
Georgia. Isolated strong gusts may occur over parts of northwest
Oklahoma.

....Northeast...
Scattered storms persist over eastern NY and will affect parts of
New England this evening. Area soundings as well as objective
analysis indicate a pocket of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE remains ahead of
the ongoing activity, but with relatively weak shear. The moist air
mass may support a continued risk of sporadic strong gusts or small
hail, but in general the threat should continue to wane through the
evening. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2102.

....Carolinas into GA...
Widely spaced but strong storms persist from western NC into
south-central GA. 00Z soundings show cool temperatures aloft which
is aiding marginal hail, and locally strong gusts have been
observed. Given weak shear and cooling air mass, the overall risk
should remain isolated this evening.

....NE...
A few storms are likely to persist this evening over parts of
central NE near a narrow instability plume and with an impinging
weak low-level jet. The 00Z LBF sounding shows steep lapse rates and
ample westerly flow aloft, favoring cellular activity. However, the
general lack of moisture should maintain a relatively isolated
severe hail or wind risk. For more information see mesoscale
discussion 2103.

....Northwest OK...
Isolated cells are ongoing this evening, in a region that heated
strongly today and where gusty south winds are enhancing
convergence. Around 1500 J/kg exists on the 00Z soundings, with
generally weak northwest flow aloft. Locally severe gusts may occur
with these cells given the deeply mixed boundary layer, but the
overall threat should remain isolated.

...Jewell.. 09/08/2023

$$

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