Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2103
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 07 2023 23:57:43

ACUS11 KWNS 072357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072357=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-080200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Areas affected...north-central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072357Z - 080200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe gusts and a few hail reports are possible this
evening across parts of north-central Nebraska. A watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has been ongoing across southern
South Dakota, moving into northern Nebraska, and additional storms
are developing along a warm front across the region near an
upper-level shortwave trough. South of the boundary, temperatures
are in the mid-80s to near 90F with dewpoints in the low 50s, and
per short-term RAP profiles, inverted-V low-level thermodynamic
profiles are common across central Nebraska. Additionally, mid-level
flow from the trough is producing effective bulk shear of 40 kts
with straight hodographs. Given the low-level thermodynamic
profiles, some severe gusts are possible, and a few hail reports are
possible with the deep-layer shear. The limiting factor is buoyancy,
with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and for this reason a watch is not
anticipated. With support from the upper-level trough, storms are
expected to sustain past sunset, moving to the east and southeast.

...Supinie/Thompson.. 09/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6b-eGIVT4_ZqM0un4DrROZCxkYYifcOmrvj5UAKzIcU352s5u20PC_NI9HJ6EZANKLZE_0ZEW=
K1jqIpXW1a3mI9qupQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42980180 43030082 42979959 42829881 42139816 41589808
            41329822 41039847 40879906 41070028 41380106 42160181
            42690213 42980180=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.