Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2098
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 07 2023 20:49:29

ACUS11 KWNS 072049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072048=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-072215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...

Valid 072048Z - 072215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest threat for damaging winds over the next
couple of hours will exist across parts of eastern Pennsylvania,
western New Jersey, southern New York, and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster/line of thunderstorms has
consolidated across eastern PA and vicinity. The airmass downstream
of this convection remains rather unstable, with around 2000-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE into western NJ and southern NY. Area VWPs show weak
low-level southerly flow gradually strengthening and veering with
height to around 25-30 kt around 6 km AGL. Similar values of
effective bulk shear will support continued thunderstorm
organization as the cluster/line moves east-northeastward over the
next couple of hours. Given the favorable thermodynamic environment
and steep low-level lapse rates present downstream of this line,
scattered damaging winds will likely continue to be the primary
severe threat in the short term. The greatest damaging wind risk
should be focused across parts of northeast MD, eastern PA, western
NJ, southern NY, and vicinity through 6 PM EDT. Isolated severe hail
may also occur with any embedded cells that can remain at least
semi-discrete.

...Gleason.. 09/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_wabUvNYK_Y4_ypnlhuzLTrhlPmP3vakhkXOHL-LY0QX7T_iM30c5IJPJiFaTTinhvgHDSbOp=
ti8RILcqizJ698bFqs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39397665 39947657 40507664 41147628 42097632 42307551
            41747465 40267486 39727564 39427619 39397665=20


=3D =3D =3D
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