Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2095
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 07 2023 18:26:11

ACUS11 KWNS 071826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071825=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Areas affected...Southwest VA...west/central Carolinas...and
portions of east/central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071825Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for sporadic damaging thunderstorm gusts
will increase through the afternoon. A watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Efficient boundary-layer heating/destabilization of a
moist air mass (upper 60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) is underway
along/east of the southern Appalachians -- where recent surface
analysis indicates a slow-moving NNE/SSW-oriented cold front.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will continue
in the vicinity of the front (aided by orographic lift along the
southern Appalachians) and boundary-layer circulations/differential
heating zones over the warm sector (where convective inhibition is
minimal). A relatively higher concentration of thunderstorm
development is possible over parts of GA into SC this
afternoon/early evening, where modest large-scale ascent is expected
ahead of a midlevel impulse tracking southeastward over the TN
Valley.

Despite generally weak flow/shear across the region, relatively
steep deep-layer lapse rates and the rich low/mid-level moisture
will support strong to locally damaging thunderstorm gusts -- aided
by water-loading into the well-mixed boundary layer. Severe-gust
potential should be greatest with any areas of localized convective
clustering/upscale growth.

...Weinman/Kerr.. 09/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!61ygVGOYIklJ8okWMOhFeHPmrN-TZsiqWC-3wc6EI3MUygE3-GpSfB_EZglFsBXkoH5f1f7I3=
o0Srl74Rqcs9pPcUQM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...
TAE...

LAT...LON   35408281 34528342 33798391 33078424 32418440 31888435
            31618407 31488359 31598308 31948263 32748183 33708094
            34638020 35467976 36687949 37057968 37278003 37338048
            37138105 36568177 35408281=20


=3D =3D =3D
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