Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 07 2023 07:36:29

FOUS30 KWBC 070736
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 07 2023 - 12Z Fri Sep 08 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

A mid-level shortwave over Michigan this morning will lift into
Ontario and weaken as its surfaced cold front continues eastward
through the Upper Ohio Valley and toward the Appalachians. In
addition, a separate minor vort max over WV this morning is
progged to move northeastward along the Appalachian crest this
afternoon. Deep SSW flow will continue to supply sufficient
moisture to the region, with precipitable water values 1.50-1.75
inches (+1 to +2.5 sigma from south to north). Increased
instability in afternoon heating will support scattered
showers/storms over the region as MLCAPE values rise to near 2000
J/kg. FFG values are relatively lower across parts of VT, the
Catskills/Southern Tier in NY and into NEPA (as well as along the
Appalachians), though the entire region has seen little rainfall
in the past week so much of the rain will be beneficial. 00Z HREF
guidance shows neighborhood probabilities for >1"/hr rainfall up
to ~50% and 2"/hr 10-25% which is close to or above the lower FFG
values between NY/PA/VT and along the WV/VA border, which stands
the greater risk within the Marginal area especially given the
more hillier terrain. Constrained the area toward I-95 where the
rain chances are lower but the flash flood risk remains non-zero.

Fracasso



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6nsWL_C6V71E6bK0qvx4nN2d0um6UKoDSel53mtQGnsO=
Xl7t2-fsjQhG1XFRfyc0_-1fzPhsIrl0TktCwe_ED9aEga8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6nsWL_C6V71E6bK0qvx4nN2d0um6UKoDSel53mtQGnsO=
Xl7t2-fsjQhG1XFRfyc0_-1fzPhsIrl0TktCwe_E53ODAG8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6nsWL_C6V71E6bK0qvx4nN2d0um6UKoDSel53mtQGnsO=
Xl7t2-fsjQhG1XFRfyc0_-1fzPhsIrl0TktCwe_E50uKRbY$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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