Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 07 2023 07:30:10

ACUS03 KWNS 070730
SWODY3
SPC AC 070729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across
parts of the Northeast, southern and central Plains, and northern
Rockies.

....Northeast...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across parts of the
Northeast on Saturday, with a southwest-to-northeast
quasi-stationary front located across the region. An axis of
instability is forecast to develop just to the southeast of the
front by midday. Scattered thunderstorms, with several small
clusters or short line segments, appear likely to form near the
front. The instability combined with surface dewpoints in the lower
70s F could be enough for marginally severe wet downbursts with the
stronger multicells during the mid to late afternoon.

....Middle to Upper Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be located across much of
the southern Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a front is forecast
to move southward through central and east Texas, with a pocket of
moderate instability developing to the south of the front by midday.
The models suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible during the mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z
on Saturday in southeast Texas suggest that low-level lapse rates
will become steep, and that moderate deep-layer shear will be in
place. This may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the
stronger multicells.

....Southern High Plains/Central Plains...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the Desert Southwest on
Friday. To the northeast of the anticyclone in parts of the southern
High Plains and central Plains, flow will be anticyclonic and from
the northwest. A axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop
by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle extending north-northeastward
into central Nebraska. In spite of weak large-scale ascent, isolated
storms may initiate along and near this axis of instability during
the late afternoon and early evening. The instability combined with
moderate deep-layer shear could support a threat for hail and strong
gusts.

....Northern Rockies...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over parts of the
Intermountain West on Saturday, as mid-level flow remains mostly
from the west-northwest across the northern Rockies and northern
High Plains. A narrow corridor of instability will likely develop
across north-central Wyoming and southwest Montana by afternoon,
with isolated thunderstorms forming near the instability axis.
Convective coverage is expected to remain isolated due to a lack of
large-scale ascent. However, the instability combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates could be enough for strong gusts and hail,
associated with multicells in the late afternoon and early evening.

...Broyles.. 09/07/2023

$$

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