Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 07 2023 00:49:08

ACUS01 KWNS 070049
SWODY1
SPC AC 070047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms remain possible this evening over parts of
northern and western Mississippi into southeast Arkansas and
northeast Louisiana, producing locally damaging gusts.

....Lower MS Valley...
Scattered strong storms currently extend from southeast AR across
northern MS and into northern AL, moving southeastward beneath 25-30
kt midlevel northwesterlies. Heating during the day has resulted in
a well-mixed boundary layer, and a pocket of moderate/strong
instability with MLCAPE values averaging 2000-3000 J/kg where
dewpoints are highest. The 00Z KJAN soundings shows a bit of
midlevel subsidence, but this has been counteracted by the favorable
time of day and uncapped parcels.

A threat of locally damaging gusts is expected to persist for a few
more hours until the boundary layer cools sufficiently. The hail
threat appears relatively low given the lack of shear, but the
strongest cores could potentially yield small/marginal hail the next
hour or two.

See mesoscale discussion 2092 for more information.

....Lower MI into OH...
A few storms persist this evening in association with a weak upper
wave and a surface trough. The 00Z DTX sounding shows MLCAPE around
1200 J/kg along with 20-30 kt midlevel westerlies. While a few
stronger storms persist currently, the overall threat is expected to
diminish shortly as the air mass cools and drying occurs from the
west.

...Jewell.. 09/07/2023

$$

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