Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 06 2023 07:48:43

FOUS30 KWBC 060748
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 06 2023 - 12Z Thu Sep 07 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO THE ARKLAMISS/MID-SOUTH/MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...

....Great Lakes...

Mid-level shortwave entering WI this morning will continue
eastward with a preceding cold front and surface low. Air mass
remains well-saturated with dew points in the mid-60s to near 70F
over Wisconsin into Michigan early this morning with precipitable
water values around 1.75 inches (+2 to +2.5 sigma). CAM guidance
indicates enough instability to support some localized 1-2"/hr
rainfall rates over northeastern WI into the U.P. of Michigan as
the system moves through, near the flash flood guidance values. By
late this afternoon, the system will shift into Canada and lose
its moisture connection to the south.


....ArkLaMiss/Mid-South/Middle Tennessee...

A surface cold front will slowly but steadily sink through
Arkansas with another round of convection possible this afternoon
after the early morning activity out of Missouri weakens and the
atmosphere has time to recover. Despite weaker dynamics overall
but sufficient moisture in the column ahead of the front, some
heavier rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are possible as storms progress
southeastward. May need to re-evaluate later this morning to
assess atmospheric recovery/stability. Risk outline continues into
Middle TN where FFG values are a bit lower but so are the
probabilities of higher rainfall rates >2"/hr as well as a bit
lower areal coverage.=20


Fracasso


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7cSUblfGnGdeeTgy_s9eInIkDrKLn3E2dRNin54aAqIV=
XzmJpoc2UzglAiTEbRy66hFMQFJWNno183uZPMJlZP7NiP8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7cSUblfGnGdeeTgy_s9eInIkDrKLn3E2dRNin54aAqIV=
XzmJpoc2UzglAiTEbRy66hFMQFJWNno183uZPMJlNR6Sofk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7cSUblfGnGdeeTgy_s9eInIkDrKLn3E2dRNin54aAqIV=
XzmJpoc2UzglAiTEbRy66hFMQFJWNno183uZPMJlebsGKHE$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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