Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2090
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 06 2023 05:19:01

ACUS11 KWNS 060518
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060518=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-060645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Areas affected...south-central MO into northern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 060518Z - 060645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong thunderstorm gusts of 45-60 mph are
possible the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A semi-organized bowing cluster of storms will continue
to develop eastward near the MO/AR border the next couple of hours.
This activity has shown some modest increase in organization and
intensity over the past 30-60 minutes, with a measured gust to 51 kt
recently noted at KVBT. Convection will continue to move through an
area of MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates around
7-7.5 C/km. This will likely maintain short-term storm intensity.
However, vertical shear remains fairly weak, with effective shear
around 20-25 kt. Furthermore, this activity will remain on the
southern fringes of a moderate low-level jet. As a result,
convection may produce sporadic gusts approaching severe limits in
the short term, but a gradual weakening trend is expected with
eastward extent over the next couple of hours, precluding the need
for a severe thunderstorm watch.

...Leitman/Edwards.. 09/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!46LCGxOBBMsOu2IK9wAlEFs-RlUrsK97416eWbRo0ZHOT-PTJVhXR1KdFrT1FBUQ5SpKMGgM6=
1UUrwDZk3ySDn_7h80$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35999179 36029275 36159392 36299406 36799322 37319285
            37339223 37219141 36989095 36579089 36269107 35999179=20


=3D =3D =3D
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