Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 06 2023 05:06:40

AWUS01 KWNH 060506
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-061000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 AM EDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Areas affected...northern WI into the U.P. of MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060504Z - 061000Z

Summary...Isolated areas of flash flooding will remain possible
overnight across northern WI into the U.P. of MI. Rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr may allow for some 2-4 inch totals through 10Z.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0430Z showed an area of
thunderstorms extending from northwestern WI into the western U.P.
of MI. These storms have had a history of producing 1-2 in/hr
rainfall rates since 00Z and localized totals of 3-4 inches over
far northwestern WI (via MRMS and local gauges). The strongest
thunderstorms were occurring just ahead of a surface low analyzed
to the southeast of HYR at 04Z, within a modestly diffluent flow
regime aloft and 1.4 to 1.8 inches of precipitable water. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 04Z also showed 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
place across the northern half of WI into the western half of the
U.P. of MI and only weak CIN. An outflow boundary was analyzed
from near Marquette, southwestward into northern WI, with a vast
majority of thunderstorms occurring north of the outflow.

Environmental conditions will remain favorable for the
continuation of thunderstorms over northern WI into the U.P. of MI
overnight with a short term focus along the WI/MI border, near and
north of the outflow boundary. While the upper support driving the
convection, in the form of a moderately strong upper level trough
with a slight negative tilt, is expected to steadily push off
toward the east through 12Z, short term southwest to northeast
areas of training will remain possible with localized storm totals
of 2-4 inches. Farther south into north-central WI, it is unclear
if there will be much in the way of thunderstorms as the cold
front moves eastward into the unstable environment given a lack of
development so far. However, forcing for ascent will remain robust
over the next few hours and localized activity with high rainfall
rates can't be ruled out. While drought conditions in place across
the region should limit runoff, the potential for localized 3-4
inch totals may produce an isolated flash flood over the next few
hours.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!93JJtjcuT_ZddXhAs4XV5gQwQWaTjpxjT9hstkBmAJQwfATTsvluNvkAJz6OrTsyj_ol=
jqYSfqXTbDaFhjv-VBmrCeg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47478722 46828647 46228672 45648732 44898873=20
            44769063 45099115 46299107 47068921 47448846=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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