Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 05 2023 17:22:26 ACUS02 KWNS 051722 SWODY2 SPC AC 051721 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated primarily with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys north to the Great Lakes. ....Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough -- comprised of several smaller-scale disturbances -- is forecast to shift across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region Wednesday, around the northeastern periphery of a persistent south-central and southwestern U.S. ridge. At the surface, an accompanying/rather weak cool front will likewise advance eastward across this same area, and will act as a focus for persistent/scattered to isolated clusters of deep moist convection through the period. ....Great Lakes region south to the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee Valley region, ahead of the advancing cold front. Gusty winds may occur locally with the remnant convection. As the airmass ahead of the front gradually heats/destabilizes, reintensification of ongoing convection, and new development of additional storms/storm clusters is expected across this broad region. While flow aloft will not be particularly strong, sufficient shear for multicell clustering/organization suggests that potential for locally strong/marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. Some potential for marginal hail may also evolve, particularly over the Tennessee Valley vicinity where greater instability and slightly stronger shear may overlap. Any ability to narrow down any areas of possibly more concentrated risk remains elusive at this time, with multiple rounds of storm development expected in various locales, and substantial differences amongst various CAMs in locations of clusters of potentially more widespread convection. As such, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk across this region. ...Goss.. 09/05/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .