Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 05 2023 07:32:53

ACUS03 KWNS 050732
SWODY3
SPC AC 050731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND
ARK-LA-TEX...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts and
hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the Northeast,
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians. Additional storms with a
marginal severe threat may develop in parts of the Ark-La-Tex.

....Northeast/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front are forecast to
move eastward across the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place ahead of
the front with surface dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to lower
70s F. This will contribute to the development of moderate
instability in most areas ahead of the front by afternoon. As
surface heating takes place during the day, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will likely form ahead of the front across much of
this moist airmass. NAM forecast soundings around 21Z from central
New York southward to northern Virginia suggest that deep-layer
shear will remain relatively weak. However, MLCAPE is forecast to
peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across much of the region. This,
combined with steep low-level lapse rates, could be enough for a
marginal wind-damage threat in areas that heat up the most.

....Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level anticyclone will be in place across the Desert Southwest
on Thursday, as flow remains northwesterly across much of the
south-central U.S. Moisture return is forecast to take place across
the southern Plains during the day. By afternoon, a
southeast-to-northwest corridor of maximized low-level moisture is
forecast from Arkansas to southern Kansas. As surface temperatures
warm and low-level convergence increases along this corridor during
the mid to late afternoon, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop. NAM forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE will
peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range from Arkansas into southeast
Oklahoma, where 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 35 knot
range. This could be enough for marginal severe threat. Strong gusts
and hail would be the primary hazards.

...Broyles.. 09/05/2023

$$

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