Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2083
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 05 2023 05:36:53

ACUS11 KWNS 050536
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050536=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-050700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Areas affected...northeast ND and northwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668...

Valid 050536Z - 050700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 668
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm gusts of 45-60 mph remain possible the next
1-2 hours, though a localized more intense gust or two may occur as
well.

DISCUSSION...A well developed bow will continue to shift northeast
from northeast ND into northwest MN before crossing the
international border in the next couple of hours. Surface
observations suggest much of this activity is to the cool side of a
warm front draped across northwest MN. Nevertheless, convection will
move through a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes, and midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km. This
should continue to support organized convection. In addition to
convection being on the cool side of the surface boundary,
boundary-layer cooling leading to strong low-level CINH has likely
rendered storms to be elevated. Recent measured surface observations
of 47 kt at KDVL and 47 kt at KRDR highlight the transition toward
more elevated convection struggling to overcome strong
boundary-layer inhibition compared to earlier, more intense gusts.
However, a gust to 67 kt at KGFK suggests localized intense gusts
may continue in the short term. Overall, expect more broad area of
thunderstorm gusts to around 45-60 mph to continue for another 1-2
hours as the line of storm approaches the international border.
Gusty winds may continue behind the line of convection in the
wake-low region.

...Leitman.. 09/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9gCohISkf6hwyOlw6Ap7J2RPkKZrWXRv3RDtto4yHBcXtlS0Is2q0kVl6G_ctp-l8c5bo6aVn=
SaebLpN9n-ozWXCVbI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48639823 49069656 48899560 48379538 47889612 47339745
            47249797 47729840 48329867 48639823=20


=3D =3D =3D
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