Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 05 2023 00:28:21

ACUS01 KWNS 050028
SWODY1
SPC AC 050026

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts remain possible over portions of the northern
Plains this evening, especially parts of North Dakota.

....01z Update...

Strong mid-level short-wave trough has progressed into eastern WY
early this evening. This feature will advance into the western
Dakotas by 06z as 500mb speed max translates downstream. Leading
edge of large-scale ascent appears to be partly responsible for
ongoing convection that is now propagating across the western
Dakotas. One cluster of storms, in particular, has evolved into a
bowing structure, arcing from west of Mobridge SD to southeast of
Dickinson ND. This organized squall line has produced severe winds
in excess of 60kt, and the thermodynamic environment continues to
favor gusty downdrafts as surface temperatures remain quite warm
immediately downstream, just south of the synoptic front. Have
increased wind probabilities a bit across the upper Red River Valley
as this complex of storms should remain organized as it progresses
northeast this evening, especially given the expected increase in
LLJ across the eastern Dakotas over the next few hours.

...Darrow.. 09/05/2023

$$

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