Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 04 2023 16:42:49

ACUS01 KWNS 041642
SWODY1
SPC AC 041641

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts and large hail are expected over parts of the
northern Plains this afternoon and evening, particularly from parts
of eastern Wyoming to the Dakotas.

....Northern Plains...
An upper trough over the Intermountain West/north-central Rockies
will continue northeastward toward the Dakotas, with thunderstorms
expected to increase near/behind an advancing cold front this
afternoon, initially across interior/eastern portions of Wyoming and
far southeast Montana. Strengthening winds aloft, steep lapse rates,
and modest overall buoyancy will support high-based storms capable
of large hail and strong wind gusts. Storms will likely further
increase, aggregate, and grow upscale into northeast Wyoming/western
South Dakota and eventually North Dakota this evening, with the
potential for severe-caliber wind gusts expected to steadily
increase accordingly. This also includes some potential for
significant wind gusts (65+ kt).

....Ozarks/Mid-South...
Widely scattered to scattered, multicellular thunderstorms are
expected to increase across the region this afternoon with the
potential for localized wind damage, and possibly some sporadic hail
near severe limits. This will be as the upper low transitions
northeastward toward the region and interfaces with a moderately to
strongly unstable boundary layer, with moderately strong winds aloft
(25-30 kt at 500 mb? likely contributing to some semi-sustained
multicells. Any such severe risk should diminish by around sunset.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 09/04/2023

$$

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