Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 04 2023 08:58:18

ACUS48 KWNS 040858
SWOD48
SPC AC 040856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5...
An upper-level low and an associated trough are forecast to move
slowly eastward across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Tennessee
Valley from Thursday to Saturday. An associated cold front is
forecast to move eastward into the southern and central
Appalachians, and southward into the northern Gulf Coast states.
Moderate instability is expected to develop each afternoon ahead of
the front, where scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear appear to be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat in some areas ahead of the
front. The greatest potential for an isolated severe threat would be
in the Gulf Coast states on Thursday, in the Carolinas on Friday,
and along the middle Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. A 15 percent
contour could be needed on Thursday in parts of the Southeast, once
certainty increases concerning important factors such as
instability, deep-layer shear and cell coverage.

Further west into parts of the central Rockies and northern High
Plains, an upper-level ridge is forecast to develop. Low-level
moisture will likely return northward into parts of the Great
Plains, where isolated strong thunderstorms may develop Saturday
afternoon. An isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of
the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon. However,
uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of instability
and timing of the front.

....Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
From Sunday into Monday, mid-level flow is forecast to become
west-northwesterly across much of the central U.S., as a cold front
moves southward across the Great Plains. Thunderstorms that develop
along and near the front could have an isolated severe threat each
afternoon. The best chance for severe would be in the central Plains
on Sunday and in the southern Plains on Monday. At this time,
uncertainty concerning instability ahead of the front appears to be
too great for a 15 percent contour.

...Broyles.. 09/04/2023

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