Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 04 2023 07:32:19

ACUS03 KWNS 040732
SWODY3
SPC AC 040731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will
be possible on Wednesday from the mid Mississippi Valley
north-northeastward into the southwestern Great Lakes.

....Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley/Southwestern Great
Lakes...
An upper-level trough and an associated cold front are forecast to
move eastward from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. A moist airmass will be located
ahead of the front, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface heating takes place, a
relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability is
expected to develop by afternoon. Strong thunderstorms will likely
form during the mid to late afternoon near and ahead of the front,
within the corridor of instability. MCS development, along with
several clusters or line segments, will be possible during the late
afternoon and evening.

NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis by late
afternoon generally peak MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range.
Deep-layer shear is more subdued with 0-6 km shear only between 25
and 35 knots. This is primarily due to the absence of a mid-level
jet. For this reason, storms are generally expected to remain
multicellar. Isolated wind damage would be the primary threat,
although a localized hail threat may also occur in areas where lapse
rates become the steepest. Any severe threat could persist into the
evening as the cold front moves into the lower Ohio Valley.

...Broyles.. 09/04/2023

$$

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