Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2076
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 03 2023 18:33:44

ACUS11 KWNS 031833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031832=20
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-032100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023

Areas affected...Central into northeast NV...northwest UT...and far
southeast ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 031832Z - 032100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe-storm risk will increase from west to east this
afternoon, with severe gusts and hail possible. A watch is possible
in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a swath of convection
with several embedded/transient deeper cores spreading northward
across the northern half of NV this afternoon. This activity is
generally focused near a north/south-oriented surface
trough/stationary front and within an area of maximized
DCVA/midlevel ascent (evident in water vapor imagery) preceding a
substantial midlevel trough over northern CA/OR.

As the midlevel trough and related height falls gradually spread
eastward across eastern NV and eventually UT through the afternoon
and evening, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will spread/expand
east-northeastward across the region. Filtered heating and related
destabilization of a very moist air mass across the northern half of
NV, coupled with a long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective
shear), will support a mix of organized clusters/line segments and
supercell structures. Severe gusts are the primary concern with this
activity, though instances of severe hail are also possible --
especially with any sustained supercell structures. With time,
thunderstorms should increase in both intensity and coverage as they
spread/develop east-northeastward into northwest UT this
afternoon/evening -- in concert with the ejecting midlevel trough.
Here, less cloud coverage and stronger diurnal heating may
eventually support a relatively higher severe-wind threat, as storms
intercept an increasingly mixed boundary layer amid favorable
deep-layer shear.=20

A watch is possible for parts of the area in the next couple of
hours.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 09/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7d4v4Z-mecynkylcawsNOCbNYD2MIdBhMAWRVLnwapcl8fw64TvqavQjBGcX04Jkrw1yh9glv=
zAuPO0slszRiLjk_iU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   41581549 41021665 40721713 40441735 40011742 39421731
            38981690 38771628 38901508 39331378 39641285 39971215
            40341161 40831125 41641109 42071124 42471169 42611216
            42541273 42351345 41971461 41581549=20


=3D =3D =3D
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