Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 03 2023 17:30:46 ACUS02 KWNS 031730 SWODY2 SPC AC 031728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST SD...SOUTHWEST ND...EXTREME NORTHEAST WY...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to widely scattered severe wind and hail will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. ....Northern Plains... Multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon/evening, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejects northeastward out of the Intermountain West. Initial diurnal storm development is expected across the higher terrain of WY, which will spread northeastward into an increasingly warm and unstable environment across the Dakotas. Low-level moisture is expected to remain somewhat limited, which will result in a tendency for convection to be relatively high-based, but increasing deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures, including the potential for organized clusters and potentially a few supercells. The greatest coverage of storms is expected near and just north of a frontal zone draped from western SD into southern ND, with a more conditional risk of isolated storm development near a surface low that will be located near the ND/MN/MB border Monday afternoon. Severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, given the potential for relatively organized and high-based convection. However, any sustained supercells will also pose some hail potential, especially near the front where buoyancy will be maximized. Convection may tend to be more disorganized with southward extent, but strong pre-convective heating/mixing will support a threat of isolated outflow-driven severe gusts into southern SD and western NE. ....AR into southern MO... An upper-level low initially over north TX is forecast to move northeastward toward the Ozarks through the day on Monday. This will result in somewhat colder temperatures aloft and steeper midlevel lapse rates overspreading relatively rich low-level moisture across parts of AR and southern MO. MLCAPE will increase to near or above 2000 J/kg, in conjunction with a modest increase in deep-layer southerly flow east of the upper low track. A few stronger multicell clusters will be possible during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of isolated damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. ...Dean.. 09/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .