Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 03 2023 16:32:41

ACUS01 KWNS 031632
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are possible
across much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West this afternoon
and evening, especially across parts of Nevada and Utah into
southeast Idaho.

....Great Basin/Intermountain West...
An upper trough centered over northern California early today will
continue to spread east-northeastward over the Great Basin.
Preceding the upper trough, 12z observed soundings from locations
such as Elko NV, Boise ID, and Salt Lake City UT sampled a very
moist air mass with Precipitable Water values generally ranging from
0.80-1.25 inches.

Some stronger thunderstorms are already evident early today across
western Nevada, and a further increase in coverage and intensity is
likely regionally into the afternoon as the boundary layer heats,
with plentiful cloud breaks noted across eastern Nevada into Utah
this morning. Hail and strong/severe-caliber winds will be possible
across a broad region, but the most organized and sustained storms,
including some supercells, should occur across the eastern half of
Nevada into western/north Utah and possibly southeast Idaho where
effective shear should be around 35-45 kt.

....North Texas...
Thunderstorms should increase this afternoon, at least in a widely
scattered sense, on the immediate eastern periphery of an upper low
centered across north Texas. Vertical shear will be weak, and
overall buoyancy will be limited as compared to typical summertime
standards. However, a pocket of cool mid-level temperatures (around
-10C at 500 mb) could support some stronger (low-topped but
high-based) storms as the boundary layer heats. A few storms could
produce severe-caliber wind gusts.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 09/03/2023

$$

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