Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 03 2023 08:55:40

ACUS48 KWNS 030855
SWOD48
SPC AC 030854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move relatively slowly eastward
from the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday to the lower Great
Lakes by Friday. An associated cold front will accompany the
upper-level trough. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass
will be in place. As surface temperatures warm each day, scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible along and ahead of the
front. The greatest severe potential is forecast across the central
Great Lakes on Wednesday, the lower Great Lakes on Thursday, and in
the Northeast on Friday. Although moderate instability could develop
each afternoon ahead of the front, deep-layer shear is not forecast
to be that strong. The weakness in vertical shear should keep any
severe threat that materializes on the marginal side. A small 15
percent area still can not be ruled out, but that would depend upon
mesoscale factors that can not yet be resolved by the medium-range
models.

....Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the upper-level trough is forecast to still be located
in the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a front is forecast to
move eastward toward the Eastern Seaboard. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front Saturday
afternoon. The front is expected to move eastward to near the
Atlantic Coast on Sunday, minimizing any potential for a severe
threat. Further west into parts of the southern and central Plains,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible both on
Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Although pockets of
moderate instability may develop in some areas, deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason, the severe
threat in most areas is expected to remain marginal and isolated.

...Broyles.. 09/03/2023

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