Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 03 2023 07:22:39

ACUS03 KWNS 030722
SWODY3
SPC AC 030721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with hail and strong
winds, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

....Upper Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and
northern Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist and
unstable airmass will likely be in place across the Mississippi
Valley. A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward from the
Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley during the day, as a
surface low tracks northeastward across western and northern
Minnesota. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will
likely allow moderate instability to develop by afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along the western edge of the
warm sector, with several cells or small clusters moving eastward
across the Upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the
evening. NAM forecast soundings around 00Z/Wednesday near
Minneapolis have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 35
knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This will
likely support an isolated threat for hail and strong gusts. The
threat will gradually shift eastward across the Upper Mississippi
Valley, and should be maintained into the early evening as the
low-level jet strengthens.

...Broyles.. 09/03/2023

$$

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