Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 03 2023 00:33:37

ACUS01 KWNS 030033
SWODY1
SPC AC 030032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

....01z Update...

Upper low has settled south along the northern CA Coast early this
evening. While heights are not expected to change appreciably inland
overnight, seasonally strong 500mb flow does extend across central
CA into western NV. 00z soundings across the Great Basin do not
exhibit significant instability, especially the northern Great Basin
where MUCAPE is generally on the order of 500 J/kg. However,
buoyancy is a bit higher across the lower CO River Valley where
instability is approaching 2000 J/kg near the international border.
00z sounding at VEF exhibited around 1200 J/kg MUCAPE, but interior
lapse rates are generally much weaker than normal for this part of
the country. As a result, most convection has struggled with
intensity, though some organization has been noted beneath the
stronger mid-level flow over northern NV. While an isolated wind
gust, or marginally severe hail, could accompany the most robust
updrafts, overall severe threat appears too low to warrant severe
probabilities tonight.

...Darrow.. 09/03/2023

$$

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