Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 02 2023 20:01:06

ACUS01 KWNS 022001
SWODY1
SPC AC 021959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage this afternoon
from southeast CA/western AZ into NV. A marginal supercell or two
cannot be ruled out later this afternoon across parts of
central/northern NV, given the presence of 30-40 kt effective shear
to the east of a stationary upper low across northern CA/southern
OR, but generally weak midlevel lapse rates and limited buoyancy are
expected to limit the potential for severe hail/wind. Other strong
storms remain possible into the lower CO Valley region, where weaker
shear but stronger instability is in place compared to areas farther
north. See the previous discussion below for more information.

...Dean.. 09/02/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023/

....Lower Colorado Valley region...
A very moist environment will remain in place with PW values of 1.75
to 2 inches. Diurnal heating will contribute to moderate/locally
strong MLCAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon with negligible CINH.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop or increase in coverage, aided
by diffluent upper-level flow downstream of an upper low over the
northwest CA coast, and ascent with a weak mid-level impulse lifting
northeast from northern Baja Peninsula. Despite overall weak shear
through the cloud-bearing layer, an isolated stronger storm will be
capable of strong gusts.

....Central/northern Nevada...
Morning cloud cover/precipitation persists across the area, however
some heating/destabilization is expected this afternoon in the
vicinity of a stationary front where MLCAPE of 400-800 J/kg should
develop. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in the
vicinity of the front, where mid-level flow of 35-45 kts east of the
upper low will contribute to a couple more organized cells.
Localized strong wind gusts will be possible, but the lack of
greater buoyancy casts doubt on the overall magnitude of the severe
risk.

$$

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