Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 02 2023 17:13:08 ACUS02 KWNS 021713 SWODY2 SPC AC 021711 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NV/SOUTHERN ID/WESTERN UT AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST AZ...SOUTHEAST OR...AND WESTERN WY... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and strong to potentially severe winds will be possible across parts of the Intermountain West Sunday afternoon and evening. ....Intermountain West... A persistent mid/upper-level low initially near the northern CA coast is forecast to evolve into a shortwave trough and eject across parts of the Great Basin on Sunday, in response to a deepening longwave trough and related shortwave moving across western Canada. As this occurs, somewhat colder midlevel temperatures and steeper midlevel lapse rates will emerge across parts of the Intermountain West, with sufficient low-level moisture to support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg by peak heating from NV into southern ID and western UT. Ascent attendant to the ejecting shortwave trough will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Midlevel southwesterly flow will be sufficient to support effective shear of 30-40 kt, with organized clusters and a few supercells possible. Relatively modest heating and instability may tend to limit the severe threat to some extent, but at least isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms as they move northeastward during the afternoon/evening. ....Northern High Plains... Weak high-based convection may spread northeastward across the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, in conjunction with a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough. Very limited moisture/instability should limit the organized severe threat, but localized strong gusts will be possible. ....Parts of north/central TX... A weak mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary across north TX on Sunday. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited in the vicinity of this low, but relatively strong heating and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures will support modest instability and development of isolated to widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms across parts of north and perhaps central TX. Weak deep-layer shear should limit organized severe-storm potential, but localized downbursts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Dean.. 09/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .