Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 02 2023 16:29:36

ACUS01 KWNS 021629
SWODY1
SPC AC 021627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Lower Colorado Valley region...
A very moist environment will remain in place with PW values of 1.75
to 2 inches. Diurnal heating will contribute to moderate/locally
strong MLCAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon with negligible CINH.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop or increase in coverage, aided
by diffluent upper-level flow downstream of an upper low over the
northwest CA coast, and ascent with a weak mid-level impulse lifting
northeast from northern Baja Peninsula. Despite overall weak shear
through the cloud-bearing layer, an isolated stronger storm will be
capable of strong gusts.

....Central/northern Nevada...
Morning cloud cover/precipitation persists across the area, however
some heating/destabilization is expected this afternoon in the
vicinity of a stationary front where MLCAPE of 400-800 J/kg should
develop. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop in the
vicinity of the front, where mid-level flow of 35-45 kts east of the
upper low will contribute to a couple more organized cells.
Localized strong wind gusts will be possible, but the lack of
greater buoyancy casts doubt on the overall magnitude of the severe
risk.

...Bunting/Weinman.. 09/02/2023

$$

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