Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 02 2023 09:00:04

ACUS48 KWNS 020900
SWOD48
SPC AC 020858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the central Rockies
on Tuesday to the Ohio Valley by Thursday, as an upper-level ridge
breaks down across the eastern U.S. During that time, an associated
cold front is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains to
the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, the medium-range models suggest
that a moist airmass will be in place. The moist airmass will heat
up each day resulting in a corridor of instability ahead of the
front. Thunderstorms that form near the front and out across the
warm sector will likely have potential to become strong during the
late afternoon and early evening. As a result, hail and gusty winds
could occur with the strongest of cells. The location of greatest
threat is expected to be in the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday,
in the western Great Lakes on Wednesday, and in the lower Great
Lakes on Thursday. In spite of the potential for severe storms,
deep-layer shear is forecast to be on the marginal side. For this
reason, any severe threat is expected to remain isolated, and
heavily dependent upon the mesoscale.

....Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
From Friday into Saturday, the upper-level trough, and an associated
cold front, are forecast to move eastward into the central
Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will likely be in
place, where the development of moderate instability will be
possible each afternoon. Thunderstorms that form along and ahead of
the front, or develop in response to the higher terrain in the
Appalachians, could obtain a severe threat. Although a locally
greater severe potential could occur in areas that heat up the most,
it appears that deep-layer shear will be marginal. For this reason,
any severe threat is expected to remain isolated.

...Broyles.. 09/02/2023

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