Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 02 2023 07:32:54

AWUS01 KWNH 020732
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1023
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Areas affected...east-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020727Z - 021235Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible along portions
of the east-central Gulf Coast through 12Z. Slow moving cells
within a very moist environment will have the potential to exceed
3 in/hr rainfall rates.

Discussion...Local radar imagery along the east-central Gulf Coast
at 07Z showed a few slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the
vicinity of a stationary front that paralleled the Gulf Coast from
MS to the FL Panhandle. The environment was very moist with GOES
East derived precipitable water values in the region averaging 2.3
to 2.5 inches, supporting relatively warm cloud tops and very
efficient rainfall production. One cell that was meandering over
Bon Secour Bay recently moved inland toward Foley, AL with reports
of 4-5 inches of rain, most of which has fallen in the past 2
hours (ending 07Z).

Southerly flow in the 0-2 km AGL layer is expected to support a
few areas of low level convergence along the front/coastline with
unidirectional flow from the south allowing for slow cell movement
and areas of training. There are signals in the RAP that one area
of convergence currently extending from near Apalachicola Bay to
Choctawhatchee Bay will extend inland over the next few hours,
potentially allowing for localized areas of heavy rain to move
into the western FL Panhandle. Available and uninhibited
instability falls off quickly with northward extent which should
limit the flash flood threat to localities within about 50 miles
of the coast. Although there has been a relative lack of rainfall
for the western FL Panhandle to the MS coast over the past couple
of weeks, very high rainfall rates will overcome dry antecedent
conditions, especially across urban areas and other locations of
poor drainage.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_ZwQ8F-rV-ILAEvjOrLCvES1-DkBRJd5x1GTpf1Nx7RRYFCsqUwvCU2_m2vmUlUYLU9j=
1o1jXR6V_T6uND9YWLooZig$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30848725 30738620 30548540 30068442 29628421=20
            29228475 29188527 29448580 29748643 29838695=20
            29798797 29828926 30368934 30608883 30828800=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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