Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 02 2023 07:16:33

ACUS03 KWNS 020716
SWODY3
SPC AC 020715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with hail and isolated
damaging winds will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across
parts of the northern Plains.

....Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough is forecast to progress east-northeastward
from the Intermountain West into the Four Corners region on Monday.
Mid-level flow ahead of the system will be from the southwest across
much of the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move southeastward across the Dakotas on
Monday. A pocket of maximized low-level moisture, with surface
dewpoints in the lower 60s F, is forecast near the front. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of moderate
instability may develop from west-central South Dakota into
east-central North Dakota. By late Monday afternoon, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the
front. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis from Rapid
City, South Dakota northeastward to Jamestown, North Dakota have
MLCAPE peaking between 1000 and 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear reaching 40
to 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km
range. Although the NAM could be a bit overdone on instability, the
overall environment should support an isolated severe threat.
Marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds are expected to
be the primary threats.

...Broyles.. 09/02/2023

$$

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