Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 02 2023 05:33:05

ACUS01 KWNS 020532
SWODY1
SPC AC 020531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States Saturday.

....Discussion...

Upper low currently located along the northern CA Coast will move
little during the period, but slowly weaken as heights rise across
much of the western US, including the Great Basin. While seasonally
strong mid-level flow will extend through the base of the trough
across southern CA into the eastern Great Basin, thermodynamic
environment will likely not prove too conducive for organized severe
updrafts Saturday. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates and
overall weak buoyancy across much of this region. Even so, a few
robust updrafts appear possible across the lower CO River Valley,
where surface temperatures will be notably warmer than higher
latitudes.

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will develop near the central
Gulf Coast, but weak flow and poor lapse rates will not support an
appreciable risk of severe. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected
to evolve across portions of the Great Lakes region within a
strengthening warm advection regime. Forecast soundings suggest this
activity will also be too weak to warrant a severe threat.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 09/02/2023

$$

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