Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 01 2023 08:54:01

ACUS48 KWNS 010853
SWOD48
SPC AC 010852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri Sep 01 2023

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move east-northeastward from
the western U.S. to the Great Lakes from Monday to Wednesday, as an
upper-level ridge remains over the eastern states. As the trough
progresses, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is
expected each day ahead of the system. Storms appear likely to
develop on Monday in the northern Plains, in the upper Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday, and in the western Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Although instability and vertical shear should be sufficient for an
isolated severe threat each day, confidence is low concerning a
greater magnitude of severe threat during the early to mid-week time
frame.

....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
A mid-level anticyclone is forecast across the southwestern and
south-central U.S. late in the week, as a relatively low-amplitude
pattern develops in the northern states. Some model solutions
suggest that a shortwave trough will move across the north-central
U.S. late in the period. Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms
will be possible ahead of this feature, if indeed the pattern is
realized. However, uncertainty is substantial from Thursday into
Friday, due to the wide range of forecast outcomes within the
medium-range models.

...Broyles.. 09/01/2023

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