Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 01 2023 00:30:56

ACUS01 KWNS 010030
SWODY1
SPC AC 010029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorms with a few strong wind gusts remain
possible across Arizona and the Lower Colorado River Valley this
evening.

....01z Update...

Mid-level anticyclone has shifted into the southern Rockies early
this evening. This eastward shift is allowing higher PW air mass to
advance north across the Gulf of CA/northwest Mexico into the lower
CO River Valley. Strong heating, combined with orographic
influences, have aided scattered thunderstorm development, mostly
over the higher terrain of northern/central AZ. More recently,
isolated high-based storms have evolved near the international
border. Latest satellite imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough
over northwest Mexico will approach southern AZ later tonight. This
feature should assist convective threat this evening into the
overnight hours, with some potential for thunderstorms to persist
well past midnight due to large-scale support. Greatest risk for
gusty winds will be prior to boundary-layer cooling when updrafts
will be somewhat more robust.

...Darrow.. 09/01/2023

$$

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