Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2071
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 23:23:57

ACUS11 KWNS 312323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312323=20
AZZ000-010130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Areas affected...southern AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312323Z - 010130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts ranging from
60-70 mph are possible this evening as storms slowly move northwest
into richer moisture.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a small developing
cluster of thunderstorms near I-19 in southern AZ and other
developing thunderstorms northeast of Tucson.  Water-vapor imagery
shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over NM and a mid- to
upper-level trough situated west of Baja California.  A belt of
perhaps marginally enhanced southeasterly 500-mb flow appears to be
over southeast AZ (15-20 kt per the KEMX VAD).  The developing
thunderstorms are within the eastern periphery of a plume of richer
moisture protruding northward from the Gulf of California into the
lower CO River Valley and southwest AZ.=20=20

Surface observations across southern AZ are hot with temperatures in
the 100s deg F and dewpoints generally in the 50s.  The 22 UTC 1Y7
(Yuma, AZ) raob showed very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates (in
excess of 8 deg C/km from the surface to 500 mb).  The very steep
lapse rates and inverted-v profile over southern AZ will support
strong to severe downdrafts with peak gusts in the 60-70 mph range
with the stronger cores this evening.

...Smith/Grams.. 08/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8B4Lysd7CdldxE2sG1Tb0nNuqhZucolEJi7AKvy1RMfXkLNlcMdqPWm7f2AvRogGr3KxV0kia=
noZJn_tEVJtPRlA1tA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   31881287 32441278 33041242 33211200 33141119 32901094
            32381089 31491154 31881287=20


=3D =3D =3D
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