Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 16:26:25

ACUS01 KWNS 311626
SWODY1
SPC AC 311624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR AZ INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of gusty winds are expected across Arizona and
the Lower Colorado River Valley late this afternoon into evening.

....AZ/lower CO River Valley this afternoon through tonight...
A midlevel high over NM this morning will shift east-northeastward
toward the southern/central High Plains as an upstream shortwave
trough evolves into a closed low over western OR and northern CA.  A
plume of 1.25-1.50 inch PW will be drawn northward from southwest AZ
toward southeast NV and southwest UT through tonight around the
northwest periphery of the NM high, as height gradients/flow
gradually strengthen between the high and the developing Pacific
coast low.  This will result in some destabilization (when combined
with daytime heating and deep mixing) and the potential for
scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight from
southern AZ into extreme southeast CA, southeast NV and extreme
southwest UT.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim and the
higher terrain in southeast AZ, and subsequently spread
westward/northwestward on convective outflows.  MLCAPE up to 1000
J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles will support strong/isolated
severe outflow gusts from later this afternoon into early tonight as
thunderstorm clusters spread across AZ toward southeast NV/southwest
UT.

...Thompson/Lyons.. 08/31/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.