Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 12:49:24

ACUS01 KWNS 311249
SWODY1
SPC AC 311247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARIZONA
AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of gusty winds are expected across Arizona and
the Lower Colorado River Valley late this afternoon into evening.

....Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley...
The upper ridge centered over Arizona/New Mexico is expected to
slowly shift eastward and somewhat weaken over the region,
potentially resulting in some enhancement of southeasterly mid-level
flow across northwest Mexico into Arizona. This will help to
maintain a moist air mass across the region, with the 12z observed
sounding from Tucson sampling a 1.2 inch Precipitable Water value.

Early day cloud debris over southern Arizona early today should not
overly inhibit boundary-layer heating into this afternoon, with
surface temperatures likely to again soar above 100F at lower
elevations. High-based convection should develop/increase through
mid/late afternoon, and subsequently propagate generally
northwestward. Strong gusty winds and blowing dust will be possible
regionally.

....Far eastern North Carolina...
Idalia will continue to shift eastward away from the coast, with
supercell potential similarly having diminished early today.

...Guyer/Goss.. 08/31/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.