Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 08:53:53

ACUS48 KWNS 310853
SWOD48
SPC AC 310852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Prominent upper ridging over the central CONUS should gradually
become suppressed from Day 4/Sunday into early next week as an upper
trough over the western states ejects northeastward across the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Severe potential across
the CONUS should remain low Sunday with modest low-level moisture
across the Great Basin limiting instability. Some severe threat may
eventually materialize across parts of the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest from late Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. While low-level
moisture should initially be limited across these areas, a narrow
corridor of greater instability may develop along/near a surface
cold front in this time frame. Any appreciable severe potential
would likely remain tied to this southeastward-advancing front
through the middle of next week. However, the de-amplifying nature
of the ejecting upper trough and some timing differences in its
placement suggest that predictability remains too low to include any
15% severe areas.

...Gleason.. 08/31/2023

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