Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 08:33:12

FOUS30 KWBC 310833
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 31 2023 - 12Z Fri Sep 01 2023

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A PORTION
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE IDALIA HEADS OUT TO SEA...

....Eastern North Carolina...
Continued to trim away at parts of the previous outlook areas
given the progressive nature of Idalia...with heaviest rainfall
bands confined over eastern/southeast North Carolina due to the
shear across the system.  While there may be only 6 to 12 hours of
rainfall over the area before rainfall tapers off...the combined
rainfall from what fell on Wednesday and Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning may still locally exceed 6 inches warranting a
continuation of the Moderate risk area.  Saw little reason to
modify the Marginal introduced over northern Florida with radar
showing confluent westerly flow of moisture over a portion of the
state which have already been impacted with heavy rainfall
amounts.=20

....Western U.S....
Enhancement within the monsoonal pattern arises later today as a
deepening longwave trough over the west coast and a building upper
ridge center over the Plains works in tandem to start drawing low
to mid-level moisture over the Southwest U.S, mainly Arizona into
Utah.  While modest...the forecast values of instability is more
than sufficient to produce late day showers and thunderstorms from
the southern border up through the Mogollon Rim into UT. Locally
heavy rainfall within any convective development can pose a threat
for flash flooding, especially near any terrain or urbanized
corridors.=20

Bann




Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9iK2R-jBABx1NvOUXM1f3WXISsW7JqlynrKBEpkbYDJo=
9yztuud9FyT-uYyTPN4mEmqzg0j4LsWoswhMr1GoY7XJ9UE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9iK2R-jBABx1NvOUXM1f3WXISsW7JqlynrKBEpkbYDJo=
9yztuud9FyT-uYyTPN4mEmqzg0j4LsWoswhMr1GoLEQgoF0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9iK2R-jBABx1NvOUXM1f3WXISsW7JqlynrKBEpkbYDJo=
9yztuud9FyT-uYyTPN4mEmqzg0j4LsWoswhMr1GoCHySvLA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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