Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 07:31:50

ACUS03 KWNS 310731
SWODY3
SPC AC 310730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low initially centered along/near the northern CA
Coast Saturday morning is forecast to gradually evolve into an open
wave while moving slowly eastward across the Pacific Northwest and
CA through the period. A belt of enhanced south-southwesterly
mid-level flow should be maintained on the eastern side of this
upper trough over parts of central CA into the northern Great Basin
and interior Pacific Northwest. Greater low-level moisture,
characterized by at least mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints, will
likely remain confined to parts of southeastern CA, AZ, and southern
NV through the day. More limited moisture is expected farther north
into the Great Basin and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest,
where perhaps low to mid 50s surface dewpoints may be present.

Deep-layer shear strong enough to support organized updrafts will
probably be confined to areas beneath the mid-level jet across parts
of northeastern NV, eastern OR, and southern ID. The potential for
substantial destabilization across this area remains in doubt owing
to possible antecedent precipitation and cloud cover hindering
diurnal heating to some extent. Given these potentially limiting
factors, have not included low severe probabilities across this
region at this time. But, some strong convection appears possible
given the forecast strength of the mid-level flow.

...Gleason.. 08/31/2023

$$

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