Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 03:19:05

AWUS01 KWNH 310319
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-310810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1013
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected...eastern SC into eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310316Z - 310810Z

Summary...Numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding are
expected from Tropical Storm Idalia across the Coastal Plain of
South and North Carolina. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, locally
higher, should continue to generate significant and life
threatening flash flooding.

Discussion...The center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located just
northeast of downtown Charleston at 03Z via the latest NHC
advisory, tracking toward the northeast at 18 kt. A 50-100 mile
stipe of heavy rain has followed the path of Idalia with rainfall
totals of 3 to 7 inches over the past 6 hours, centered over the
South Carolina Lowcountry in the vicinity of Lake Marion.

Radar imagery showed the strongest rainfall intensities occurring
75-125 miles northeast of Idalia's center near the border of South
and North Carolina with recent reports of ~1.5 inches of rain in
30 minutes near Loris, South Carolina. It was here where 40-50 kt
of 850 mb flow was converging inland across a coastal front
analyzed from just inland of MYR to ILM to just north of HSE.
Tropical moisture was highest to the northeast of Idalia with 00Z
soundings reporting 2.86 and 2.45 inches of precipitable water at
CHS and MHX, respectively. Onshore flow will support the transport
of 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE located near and offshore of Cape Fear to
locations just inland, with low level convergence beneath a region
of strong upper level divergence within the right entrance region
of a 130 kt jet streak centered over New England.

Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally higher) and 3-hr totals of
2-4 inches are likely to continue across a southwest to northeast
stripe along the Coastal Plain of northeastern South Carolina into
eastern North Carolina. These rains will likely continue to create
areas of flash flooding, some of which could be moderate to
severe, with the greatest vulnerability across low-lying areas and
other locations with poor drainage.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8LwtDbW-2q_PwJiBI3ZXNWN0H4t2eMf3TPRZpryFtV2_3FLGaE_mz5Rfv8ezv6xD9yqR=
XOZ9dmuDsefrFIQWB0QD_Qo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36607601 36467551 35787515 35187518 34667563=20
            34117641 33547793 33497870 33547913 33447959=20
            33348010 33418049 33608064 33948056 34738000=20
            35777857 36347717=20

=3D =3D =3D
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